Among wars, sanctions, and economic strategies, the United States emerges as Germany's major trading partner in the early months of 2024, redefining global balances

by Marco Arezio

The dynamics of global trade balances are undergoing significant transformations, influenced by geopolitical tensions and the economic strategies of major powers.

Recently, the United States has surpassed China as Germany's principal trading partner, according to the latest data revealed by the German Federal Statistical Office and analyzed by Reuters. In the first three months of 2024, trade between Germany and the United States reached 63 billion euros, while trade with China was at 60 billion euros.

In 2023, China had maintained its leadership position for the eighth consecutive year, with trades totaling 253 billion euros. However, the new scenario shows a growing influence of the United States on Europe, driven by both economic and political factors.

The war in Ukraine and the related sanctions imposed on Russia have prompted the USA to significantly increase its exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, replacing a portion of the Russian energy supplies, of which Germany was one of the major consumers.

Before the conflict, American exports of LNG to the European Union amounted to about 2 billion cubic meters monthly, a figure that has now more than doubled.

In addition, Washington has exerted pressure to limit the use of Chinese technologies in Europe, as demonstrated by the campaign against 5G infrastructure provided by Huawei, one of the leading companies in this sector in China.

These dynamics are also reflected in the statement of Jurgen Matthes, from the German Economic Institute in Cologne, who described a real reorientation of Germany "from the systemic rival China towards a transatlantic partner."

German exports to the USA continue to grow, while those to China are decreasing, a sign of a change in production dynamics.

According to Vincent Stamer, an economist at Commerzbank, China is climbing the value chain, producing more complex goods internally that it once imported from Germany. This has led German companies to shift part of their production to China rather than exporting it from home.

The same trend is observed in Italy, where the trade balance is shifting towards America at the expense of the Far East. In the first quarter of 2024, Italian exports to the USA increased by 9%, while those to China decreased by 46%.

Imports from America also grew by 7%, while those from China saw a decline of over 20%. These changes could offer Italy new economic opportunities, especially considering its competitive advantage in terms of labor costs compared to other Western countries, positioning it as a potential alternative to China for certain types of supplies destined for the USA or Germany.