The rise in global temperatures and the increase in climate anomalies are changing the face of our planet. What will happen in the next three years?

by Marco Arezio

In recent years, international news has been filled with reports of record temperatures, prolonged droughts, sudden floods, heatwaves, out-of-season hurricanes, and unexpected cold spells. These events, once considered exceptional, are becoming the new normal. But why do these climate anomalies occur? What are the forecasts for the next three years, and how can we concretely defend ourselves and adapt to a scenario that seems increasingly complex and unpredictable?

The current situation: data and warning signs

2023 and 2024 have been two of the hottest years ever recorded since systematic measurements began. According to data from Copernicus, NOAA, and the IPCC, the average global land surface temperature has, for several consecutive months, exceeded the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is not just a statistic: every additional tenth of a degree multiplies the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Among the most significant anomalies in the past twelve months are the rise in sea surface temperatures (which in turn amplifies storms and hurricanes), the reduction of Arctic and Antarctic ice, extraordinary periods of drought alternating with torrential rains, the earlier arrival of spring, and the prolonged duration of summer heatwaves. These phenomena now affect the entire planet, with no distinction between the Global North and South.

The causes of climate anomalies: between natural cycles and human activities

To understand why these anomalies occur, it is necessary to distinguish between the Earth's natural cycles and the effects of human activities.

On one hand, the Earth's climate has always experienced cyclical fluctuations due to astronomical factors (such as changes in the Earth's axis, solar cycles, ocean currents like El Niño and La Niña). On the other hand, since the 1950s, the accumulation of greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation, intensive agriculture, and urbanization has abnormally increased the concentration of CO₂ and methane in the atmosphere.

According to almost the entire scientific community, anthropogenic "forcing"—that is, the additional push exerted by human activities—has now surpassed natural variability. The most advanced climate models show that, without a rapid change of course, the coming years will see a further acceleration of average temperatures, with cascading effects on all ecosystems.

What to expect in the next three years? Likely scenarios according to science

Climate forecasts are not horoscopes but statistical tools based on millions of data points collected worldwide. The main research centers (such as the CMCC, the UK Met Office, NASA, and the IPCC) agree on several points:

Increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves: Southern Europe, Southwest Asia, and North America will be particularly exposed. In summer months, maximum temperatures could exceed the 1991–2020 average by 3–5°C, with effects on public health, agriculture, and energy.

Torrential rains and flash floods: A warmer atmosphere retains more water vapor, which results in more intense rains, often concentrated in just a few hours. Urban and coastal areas are at high risk of damage and infrastructure disruptions.

Longer and more widespread droughts: In vast areas of the Mediterranean, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Americas, the combination of high temperatures and low rainfall will cause longer droughts, with increasingly frequent water crises.

Impact on biodiversity: Rapid changes do not allow many animal and plant species to adapt. The increase in extreme events threatens agricultural production, food security, and the health of ecosystems.

Effects on glaciers and sea level rise: The accelerated melting of Alpine, Arctic, and Antarctic glaciers will continue, resulting in a rise in average sea levels and risks for coastal cities and river deltas.

Uncertainty linked to feedback and tipping points: Some processes, such as methane release from permafrost or the collapse of ocean currents, could trigger abrupt and difficult-to-reverse changes, the timing of which remains uncertain.

How can we defend ourselves? Adaptation and mitigation strategies

Faced with such complex scenarios, defense strategies must be multi-level and integrated, involving citizens, businesses, public administrations, and scientific research.

Here are some of the main concrete actions to prepare for and adapt:

Climate-proof urban and land planning

Cities will need to invest in resilient infrastructure: advanced drainage systems, urban reforestation, green roofs, and reflective materials that lower building temperatures, as well as alert networks for floods and heatwaves. Increasing soil permeability to reduce flood risks and rethinking public mobility from a sustainable perspective are essential.

Water resource management

Drought calls for new strategies for water collection, recycling, and conservation: smart water networks, precision irrigation systems in agriculture, greywater recovery, and investments in desalination in the most exposed coastal areas.

Public health protection

Health systems and civil protection agencies will need to strengthen prevention plans for the most vulnerable population groups: the elderly, children, and people with chronic illnesses. Heatwaves must be managed with information campaigns, support networks, and continuous monitoring of environmental conditions.

Adaptation in agriculture and food security

Crops will need to be selected for drought and heat resistance. Precision agriculture, the use of real-time climate data, the introduction of more resilient varieties, and productive diversification will be crucial to ensure food security in the coming years.

Innovation and technological research

The transition to a low-carbon economy is indispensable. The adoption of renewable energies, the spread of storage systems, improvements in energy efficiency, and the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are among the main solutions.

Education, awareness, and social engagement

Communities must be made aware of the importance of individual and collective behaviors: from reducing energy waste to adopting more sustainable lifestyles, to demanding ambitious climate policies from governments.

The challenge of the coming years: adapting without giving up mitigation

The crucial point is that, even while adopting all possible adaptation strategies, we cannot give up efforts to mitigate emissions. The window of time to avoid the worst climate scenarios is rapidly closing. Every individual, business, or policy choice that reduces pressure on the environment helps make the impacts in the next three years—and especially in the long term—less severe.

Science offers us knowledge, scenarios, and tools. It is up to us, collectively, to decide how to act. Record temperatures and climate anomalies are not an inevitable fate, but the consequence of decisions (or omissions) that we can still influence.

Preparing, adapting, innovating, and changing habits is the only way to turn the climate crisis into an opportunity for progress and resilience.

© All Rights Reserved